My first anti-Brian Kelly blog ever, hopefully the last.

The last two weeks of college football have been an absolute mess for my personal fanhood. My two schools Nebraska and Notre Dame have had their seasons crumble from promise to secondary bowl game bids at best. I am not going to talk about how bad Nebraska played because all of my friends and family told me to not even watch the DVR'ed game. What I am going to talk about is the Notre Dame/Northwestern game I witnessed first hand in Notre Dame stadium yesterday. On the surface it shouldn't surprise me, since my time as a graduate student at Notre Dame I have personally seen the Irish lose many heartbreaking games in that stadium. From overtime losses to Michigan St, Pittsburgh, and Navy, ridiculous losses to Syracuse, UConn, and Tulsa, to the "Bush-Push" vs USC. In my opinion yesterday's loss is the worst of all of those because I put it squarely on Brian Kelly. Over the years I have become a bit more realistic about my expectations for the Notre Dame football, I no longer hold on to those childhood fantasies of Notre Dame going undefeated like so many others. The fact is before the season started, everyone knew the defense was young and the players returning such as Matthais Farley were not more talented than the younger players. In fact, ND has 1 SR listed number one on the depth chart, Cody Riggs, and he's been on campus for 5 months only after transferring from Florida as a 5th year. Notre Dame has 10 underclassmen getting significant playing time, so the early season success was a mirage. The problem with the loss against Northwestern was the abysmal play-calling of Brian Kelly.

Notre Dame has 3 talented runningbacks and it has become pretty apparent that Tarean Folston is Brian Kelly's favorite. Northwestern is 71st in the NCAA in rushing defense, and 52nd against the pass, so Notre Dame obviously is going to come out running the ball.. right? Oh no let's start chucking it on 3 straight plays. Luckily ND picked up a 3rd and 10. ND ran a read option that Golson took 61 yards.. maybe that'll get them running the ball again. Nope, Notre Dame continued to throw the ball at an alarming rate. The best drive the Irish had all game was in the 2nd quarter where they ran the ball 6 consecutive plays and ended the drive with a TD pass to a wide open Will Fuller.

The complete lack of adjustments from Brian Kelly is probably where I have the biggest issue. Golson started the game 5-13 passing with an INT. In this offense that is predicated on timing routes that's pathetic, and it was clear to everyone watching that game that Golson didn't have it. In baseball, if your pitcher is getting his curveball hit all over the place after 2 innings, you sure as hell don't keep throwing curveballs. Yet Kelly kept with his "throw the ball at all costs" attitude when Folston was averaging 5 yards a carry and ND's defense struggling. I am still baffled that Greg Bryant doesn't see the field at all. I feel like he must be terrible in practice or something for Kelly to trust running the ball with Chris Brown as much as he does with a top recruit like Bryant. In the last 5 games Greg Bryant has 6 carries. I am not saying he needs 15 a game, but the fact he's getting less than 2 a game is absurd. Especially when the other running back getting any carries is Cam McDaniel who might as well be a 1980s Big Ten RB, 3 yards and cloud of rubber pellets via field turf. You know what they say about Cam McDaniel, if you need 3 yards, he'll get you 3 yards, if you need 5 yards, he'll get you 3 yards. Bryant can be the change of pace back for Folston, but he seems to be in the Brian Kelly doghouse to the demise of the offense.  If Bryant isn't your guy, then put Carlisle back there, he is a natural runningback, and it's not like anyone is throwing him the ball. He's had 8 catches in the last 9 games, and 1 TD which was on a blown coverage by ASU where no one was within 10 yards of him. At the end of the night, ND had run 40 times (including Golson none designed scrambles) and thrown 40 times, only completing 21. That run/pass number should have been more like 30/50 if the correct adjustments were made.

Then there were the "what just happened" moments from Brian Kelly. Such as running a jet sweep with Chris Brown from inside the 10, in which he was so excited he might be able to score for only the 3rd time in his career (also known as Saturday for Will Fuller) he dropped the ball and cost ND at least 3 points, with the caveat being Brindza being able to actually make a FG or a holder getting the ball correctly. You really feel like putting the ball in Chris Brown's hands on a running play is the best option? Really Brian? Then the fact Notre Dame called a timeout on an extra point up 11 (a TD, a 2 point conversion, and FG lead) to go for 2 instead of making it a 12 point game where the opponent has to score 2 TDs to have any chance, is some next level Les Miles idiocy. The fact that even in the post-game press conference he didn't really get why it was horrible makes me think someone slipped him an ambien pre-game. Seriously did Mike Greenberg get to him?

I'll finish my anti-Brian Kelly rant with this, I like Brian Kelly, I wanted Notre Dame to hire him before they did, I was sick of the Davie-Willingham-Weis era of Notre Dame football where we were hiring coaches with very little to no track record of head coaching. This is why watching that game on Saturday made me so angry, because I supported this guy through all of the problems, and there were quite a bit if you remember 2010 and 2011. I am not going to be one of these unrealistic fans that wants Brian Kelly and VanGorder fired like the miserable 55 year old next me at the game on Saturday. I just want our coaches to hold themselves just as accountable for their decision making as they do their players. This defense is young, inexperienced, and getting worn down, they are asking a lot out of so many 18-20 year olds. It's on the offense and Brian Kelly in particular to skew his game-plan around protecting that defense. If he doesn't this team will be 7-5. Go Irish. 

November 8th, 2014 Running Diary

I have absolutely nothing to do today, so I thought "It'd be fun to document today's action as it's happening in my blog." This will be updated numerous times during the day, and it might get kind of R-rated, because that's just the kind of person I am.

Noon et

I have Iowa at Minnesota on currently. Iowa takes no time at all to march down the field on the Golden Gophers and get a TD on a 3rd down run by Weisman. This is a monster game for both teams to keep pace in the West Division. However, don't tell Minnesota's #31 that, as he seems to have no interest in chiming in on this tackle.

Minnesota takes no time in counter-punching and we are tied at 7. This game is setting up to be a back and forth battle. Someone is gonna have to earn that ugly ass trophy of a pig.

Baylor going on 4th down, OU runs 2 really fat slow people off the field. If this was last year, Baylor would have been allowed to go at their pace. That was a perfect example of how this "allowed to substitute" rule has really hampered teams that play with pace. Timeout Baylor as a result.

We come back from commercial and Joey Harrington immediately annoys everyone with his commentary. WOW, then Oklahoma gets an illegal substitution... HOW?!?! It was after a timeout.

On 3rd down, Bryce Petty shit his pants and gets sacked by 5 guys at once. FG is good.. Baylor doesn't kick FGs.

Trevor Knight going airborne, and every OU fan's hearts stopped for a half a second.

And OU capitalizes with a TD. 7-3 Boomer Sooners.

Back to Minnesota, and they are knocking on the door in teh 2nd quarter to go up on Iowa. Well, nevermind they do take a 14-7 lead because somehow this is a TD, even after review.

OU gets another 3rd down TD from Knight. Baylor down 14-3 and getting pressured. Why hasn't anyone realized before now that pressuring Petty and jamming WRs is the way to go versus this offense.

Wow, absolutely great catch by Minnesota to keep the drive alive and almost into Iowa territory.

Minnesota strikes again, and Iowa is on the ropes. 21-7.

Why the hell is Ole Miss playing Prysbeterian? Get the F out of here SEC and your stupid ass Nov. non-conference cupcakes.

Great play by Baylor to get a pick and almost a #picksix as ESPN likes to put it. I think he was in, but under review. This game is going to be played in the 40s at least. If Joey Harrington wasn't the color guy for this game, I'd be loving it. Momentum swinging every which way. Call stands 1st and G for Baylor at the 1, easy TD, we got 31 points in 20 minutes. We are staring at 90!!! Keep scoring fools!

This is a Minnesota ass whooping... DID NOT SEE THIS COMING. I thought they could win, but how is this game so one-sided?

About to just keep the channel on Fox Sports 1 because Oklahoma is already in the redzone. Trevor Knight is crying for a penalty already. Dude don't run if you don't want to get hit.

Joey Harrington explaining the hard count.. because it's our first game we've ever watched.

FG is no good for Oklahoma and Baylor is looking to seize control here in the 2nd quarter, killer for Boomer Sooner.

I really hope Nebraska and Tim Beck's moron ass is taking notes on how to beat the Iowa defense.. Minnesota is killing Iowa on the edge. Now on Black Friday when Nebraska runs between the tackles 12 plays in a row, maybe people will think, "Maybe he isn't the best O-coordinator"

With that being said, Nebraska is going to have to tackle on the edges with their DBs vs this Minnesota team in 2 weeks
What the hell is up with Jerry Kill's face?

Minnesota is just taking Iowa to the woodshed... This game is becoming unwatchable. 35-7.

Oklahoma is back to playing soft on Baylor WRs... this is why Petty is just marching them down the field. Baylor's slants might as well be hand-offs, they can do this all day. 

Baylor punches it in again, 24-14, This is nowhere near over.. buckle up. 

2:12pm et

Iowa really just should walk that stupid bronze pig over to the other sideline now. 42-7. Thanks for visiting Minneapolis. 

These early games are getting ridiculous... I might as well get mentally ready for the ND v ASU at this point. If Oklahoma gives a TD here to Baylor to go down 24, you can put a nail in their coffin. 

BALL EFFING GAME Baylor

330pm et

Well the morning games sucked. Now to my main course of the day, ND at Arizona St. 

ND defense gets a stop, then has a great drive going, before the 18th blitz in a row gets to Golson, who on cue on the first drive fumbles, luckily no one seems to have seen the ball and ND gets it back. Kyle Brindza who, I swear, is better from outside 40 than he is from inside of it, nails a 45 yarder by a day and a half. 3-0 Notre Dame. I think I am going to need to start boozing now. 

I'd get excited about A&M being up 14 if I thought there was any chance it would last. 

I am going to fucking punch Spielman in the fucking face, this assclown hasn't said one nice thing about ND's defense, apparently every play they make is bad, or ASU just messed up. Buckeye homo. 

LOL Sheldon Day makes a huge stop, Spielman doesn't say a fucking word. Assclown I tell you. 

Golson is fucking headache inducing, I am sick of this shit every game, he's the reason why this offense works, but he's also the reason we have struggled more than need be in 2014.  ASU scores immediately 10-3. WAKE UP. 

asd;lkfjads;klfj adsk;lfj adslk;jljg as;ldkgjas;dl 2 straight turnovers, is Golson the worst QB in the nation? Bring in Zaire. 

Got them right where we want them... this wine is delicious at least. 

If someone doesn't block, this is game is gonna be over real soon.

Well, that first quarter was HORRIBLE. Let's hope ND decides to play real football now. 

Football is hard when your QB basically hands the other team 21 points. This is fucking pathetic for a 4th year player. Embarrassing. 

Well, at least ASU has to drive from out of their on territory this time... 

Sheldon Day is the only guy playing today, the kid is a stud. 

I am real close to watching shitty SEC game that's not Bama at LSU. FUCK MY LIFE

Odds of VanGorder killing someone: 3 to 1 right now.

Notre Dame's secondary is fucking slow, they are getting so fucking exposed, FSU didn't expose them this badly. WOW.

I will say if Notre Dame had beaten FSU, this would hurt so much fucking more.

OMFG we scored a TD. Will Fuller is a playmaker, good for him, but this game is so over it's stupid. ND needs a miracle, 2012 Pittsburgh game style.

2nd half is upcoming.. I'm so excited.. I'm so excited... I'm so scared.......

Seriously what the fuck was that ABC? some shitty fake party with a 39 year old DJ?

It's obvious ND has abandoned the run, because Cam is better in pass blocking. This is horrible.
Will Fuller is the man, he's been the man all year. The guy just understands how to be a playmaker. Love him.
\
Done with Golson, he is an absolute joke, is this 2011 again with red zone turnover tommy.

Maybe this asshole Ben Koyack could try to block someone? I don't know, seems prudent.

Notre Dame's defense has stepped up in the 2nd half, now can we do anything offensively?

I like how people were talking about how ND would adjust to the hot weather, pretty sure there have been like 8 more ASU guys dying on the field this game.

PUNCH IT IN YOU DIPSHITS

SNEAK THE FUCKING BALL!

Reach the ball out Cam, what the hell is that?

If they overturn this, I am going to break my TV.

Notre Dame is only down 10 with half a quarter left.. Golson magic one more time?? VanGorder is a genius.

This is amazing having Cam in the game to block the blitz.

OH MY GOD.  I JUST GOT LIGHT HEADED YELLING SO HARD!!!

Hey Taylor Kelly, you scared right now????

What is Redfield doing?

JUST FUCKING HEARTBREAKING.

Honestly, where was this all game? We could eat ASU's middle all day.

wow, that was pathetic.............. FUCK\

I admire ND's fight, but you can't turn the ball over like they did, they deserved to lose this.

I will say this ND fans, anyone being realistic saw 10-2 at best this season, we are too young on defense and most of our playmakers are coming back. It hurts now, but look big picture.
8pm et

Alright I haven't pulled a Brittany Maynard, let's geaux Tigers!

Boom LSU forces a punt #GeauxTigers

Oh give it to LSU. Great catch.

A Wild Card Game Fitting for a Team of Wild Cards

I haven't blogged since late July, for one I have been extremely busy, between work and traveling, but also because I was just kind of enjoying the ride the Royals were taking us on. In my season preview, I predicted the AL Central winner wouldn't top 94 wins and KC would finish 2 games behind Detroit and win a wild card. For everything about that article that was wrong, you know like saying the Royals could get 95 combined HRs from Moustakas, Gordon, Hosmer, Perez, and Butler. The entire effing team hit 95 HRs. But even after all of that, I did pretty well with the top 2 teams.

Needless to say, the 2014 roller coaster was ridiculous. I count 3 times I pretty much quit on this team: the slump in May, getting swept by Boston right after the All-Star break, and losing the first 2 at home vs Boston during the playoff stretch. Yet every time I quit on the Royals they found a way to go on a hot streak of some sort and sneak some hope back into us fans. I was watching the game in Chicago on my phone at a bar in Morristown, NJ with my girlfriend (it's cool she knows I loved the Royals first) and before the last out was recorded I didn't know how'd I react. At first I thought that what's the big deal? I have been watching these play-in Wild Card games since they started and I have never been too excited for the teams in them. It's still just game 163 and not a series. Then when Salvador Perez caught the pop foul and it was over, my mood instantly changed. It was like my entire life I was unable to appreciate the MLB playoffs because I can't remember the Royals being a part of it. I have seen countless teams celebrate, but this was something different. I felt actually proud to be a Royals fan for the first time in my adult life. I was fixated on the Royals celebration, and thank you mlb.tv premium app for carrying the entire thing. 

So comes last night, the Royals hosting an elimination game in KC for the first time since Game 7 of the 1985 World Series. My nerves were through the roof unlike anything I had experienced in my baseball loving life. For as many ups and downs Royals fans experienced over 162 games in 2014, what happened over 12 innings last night was the equivalent of doing it all being all messed up on speedballs the entire time Ken Caminiti-style. What took place last night was the most ridiculous baseball game since the David Freese walkoff to force game 7 against Josh Hamilton and the Rangers, except this was do or die for both teams. The Royals stumbling out the gate and being down early vs Jon Lester who has befuddled this team all year, but the Royals were clutch city delivering 3 2-out RBIs to take a 3-2 and James Shields seemingly settling in. Then in the top of the 6th James puts the first 2 on and... "wait the fuck is this? Yost is going to... Yordano Ventura?" Three pitches later Moss puts one in the batter's eye and KC is down 5-3.. then suddenly 7-3. #Yosted one last time. 2014 is over, and for the 4th time this year I had given up on the Royals. Lester was starting to get grounders and strikeouts. "Are Salvador's eyes even open tonight?" I thought. Then KC did what they do better than anyone else in baseball.. get fast. They stole 4 bags in the 8th on the way to a 3 run inning, almost makes you forget Perez looked horrible yet again at the plate. 7-6 in the 9th, Dyson on 2nd and he does this. Aoki sac-fly gets him home and we're playing extras. "Finnegan looks amazing!" Jason Frasor gives up the go-ahead and those of us in the eastern time zone are thinking "Shit I could have been in bed 3 innings ago, tomorrow at work is going to suck." Hosmer hits one almost out oppo, and ends up with a 1 out triple. Colon tops one into the ground and this game is tied again. "I am so glad I stayed up for this, but for the love of God win now, I really have too much to do at work tomorrow." Colon steals on a pitch-out that Norris can't catch. "Too bad Perez can't help but swing at every... OH MY GOD HE HIT IT!! WE WIN!!!!" 

Last night was something we as Royals fans have all waited for since 1985 and it didn't disappoint. No matter what happens I will always remember last night's game. I have never been more exhausted just watching a game. At certain points it was pure torture and disappointment, at others it was pure joy and happiness, not unlike the entire Royals season. If the post-season ends anything last night's game for KC, it will be forever Blue October! Go Royals.

23 Days Later

With 22 games in the next 23 days including seven against the best team in baseball, the Oakland Athletics, as well as five games in NL ballparks, it's safe to say the Royals playoff hopes rely on success in the next three-plus weeks. As we currently stand on July 29th, the Royals sit 2.5 games back of the second wild card, in a jumbled mess with the Yankees, Mariners, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay all within 5 games of the Toronto Blue Jays.

This year's 2nd wildcard chase is different than that of the past 2 years where 91 wins was the minimum to get your team in the conversation. With Oakland and the Angels of Orange County Los Angeles (whatever they are) both on pace for 100 and 97 wins respectively, and the fact that the rest of the AL outside of those two teams has been pretty much a pile of similar teams, (8 teams within 7 games of the 3rd best record in the AL) this wildcard race could come down to a "first to 88 wins" scenario.

For the Royals to get to 88 wins, they'd have to play the rest of their season at 35-23. Not exactly easy, but it's not impossible, the Rays have played 13 games over .500 since June 28th and that was with a four day all-star break thrown in there. The issue comes in when you look at who the Royals have on the upcoming schedule. The aforementioned 7 vs the A's, but there is also 3 vs the Giants, 3 at Arizona, and 2 at Colorado. Now most people would see Arizona and Colorado and think, big deal, they are bad teams. This is very true, but it's not easy for KC to go into a NL park and lose Butler's bat (assuming Hosmer is healthy) from an already below average offense.

The next three-plus weeks will most likely define the Royals faithful's plans for September. Either it will be spent on the edge of our seats at home (or hopefully at The K) with every pitch, or it'll be spent tinkering with our fantasy football lineups and checking out new fall shows on network TV. Thus making the upcoming 3 game set at home against the struggling Minnesota Twins extremely important. The Twins boast what is the worst starting pitching in MLB, the Royals get Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, and Kevin Correia all of whom have struggled this year. I don't like to put too much emphasis on a single series, but anything less than a sweep here seems like a disappointment. Especially going into the weekend where the Royals travel to Oakland to face Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez. The worst pitcher of that group is Jesse Chavez with his 3.44 ERA and 8.5 K per 9 (better numbers than James Shields). It is imperative the Royals gain some offensive confidence against the Twins early in the week.

After the trip to Oakland, the Royals get their 1 off day of the stretch as they travel to the desert to the play the team with the worst home record in the NL, the Diamondbacks. Then KC comes home for a weekend series with the Giants (29-20 on the road currently) followed by a 4 game set with the Athletics. Those 7 games against the bay area will undoubtedly make that week the biggest home stand of the season for the Royals, provided they get through the previous 9 games without a major downswing. Then it's back on the road for 6 match ups against pitching optional Minnesota (4) and Colorado (2).

I'd love to sit here and predict what I think is going to happen, but after watching this team in 2014 one thing is clear, predictions are pointless. I cannot remember a Royals team that has endured so many peaks and valleys. In chronological order in this season already: Won 5, Lost 5, Lost 7 of 9, Won 10, Lost 7 of 9, Lost 10 of 13, Won 5. The most recent streak just ended with their loss on Sunday to the Indians. I like to think KC has the ability to turn the current roll into a won 8 of 9 after this Twins series, but they could just as easily turn it into a lose 6 of 7 by Monday. If the Royals get to the August 21st off day at 66-60 it'd be a great sign, if they are under .500 on August 21st it might be too late.

Mid-Season: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of the Kansas City Royals

I purposely haven't blogged in a long time. I have been trying to avoid knee-jerk reactions when it comes to the Kansas City Royals in 2014. Personally, I was on the verge of giving up after being swept by the Astros in late May. Then I was about to book flights to KC for October baseball after a 10-game win streak saw the Royals in 1st place in June for the first time since 2003 only to be immediately followed by your standard 3-8 over the next 11 games. As we stand on July 1st, the Royals are 4 games over .500 after 82 games, it could be worse.  Now is as good of a time as any to look back at the good, the bad, and the ugly of the first half of the 2014 season for the Kansas City Royals.

The Good

I have to start the good with Danny Duffy. Royals fans knew when this season started that Bruce Chen was probably not going to be a 33 start guy in 2014. Bruce got hurt and this opened the door for Danny Duffy to step into the starting rotation. After struggling in May going 1-4 with an ERA of 4.00 and barely 4 K/9, Danny shined in the month of June. In six June starts Duffman has been KC's best starter. He has held opponents to .168 average and posted a 1.69 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. His strikeouts numbers have also improved to 7.5 K/9. Duffy's continued growth has been vital to Kansas City's success.

I always thought Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar were going to be great defensively for Kansas City in 2014, and they have not disappointed. What I never expected would that they'd be the two most consistent hitters during the first half of the season. It's pretty well documented that everyone on the Royals has struggled at one point or another this year, but Cain and Esky have avoided major pitfalls.

If you would have told me that the player leading the Royals in average on July 1st was Lorenzo Cain back in March, I would have said, "with what? 33 ABs and a DL stint?" The DL stint actually did happen but it was only three weeks in April. Cain hit .342 in both April and May, which is absurd. Cain hit a very respectable .286 in June, it would have been better if not for that Golden Sombero he took last night vs the Twins. Cain is currently hitting leadoff, which isn't ideal considering walked twice in 98 June ABs, but he's hitting so much better than Aoki has at any point of the season, no one seems to care. If Cain can continue to hit +.280 for the rest of the season it would be a major win for the Royals. Something tells me to expect ~.255 however... but I am a pessimist.

Alcides Escobar is blistering right now, 11 multi-hit games in June, a .374 average, and slugging .527. He is back to his 2012 production for the Royals which is key for the long-term success of this lineup. Although it's admittedly pathetic to say this, Esky has picked up some of the slack left behind by 3rd basemen, which will be discussed in another section of this blog. Escobar is also on pace for a career-high in stolen bases in 2014 as he has 20 at the halfway point.

Honorable mention goes to Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie two guys that have been better than I expected. Especially Guthrie who I have admittedly been down on since the beginning.

The Bad
I feel like we are witnessing the beginning of the career regression for James Shields right now. James Shields has been a workhorse for his entire career. He has seven straight seasons of at least 203 innings pitched and he is on pace for 225 again in 2014. He is 32 years old and has only 2 quality starts in his last 8 starts. We are seeing the exact same thing happening to another pitcher who has had seven straight years of of 200-plus innings, Justin Verlander (who is younger, and actually having a worse season than Shields). We saw it starting last year with 32 year old CC Sabathia, and now at 33 he seems like he has one foot out the door. I'll even go back to 1993 when at the age of 30 after seven 200-plus inning seasons Roger Clemens started to post very pedestrian numbers. Then suddenly he went to Toronto at 34 and got some medication training help and become dominant again. I don't think the Shields is going to get that same kind of help that Clemens did. This is why the Royals should go ahead and make their qualifying offer to Shields at season's end, let some team offer him 5 years and let him go. The fact that Shields' strikeouts have come so far down lately is what is really scary. I was at the game in Saint Louis where he gave up a grand slam to Kolten Wong and thought "this isn't happening". I decided not to panic and wait and see what happened for the rest of the month. Outside of a start at home versus the Yankees Shields has looked below average, posting a 1.6 WHIP in June with a 4.88 ERA and 5 K/9. If the Royals want to be playing in October, their "ace" better start pitching like one again.

Eric Hosmer had an absolutely atrocious month of June hitting .195 and slugging sub-.300. Hosmer continues to have a "swing in case I hit it" mentally at the plate. (Of course he's currently 5-6 in July with 3 walks). Hosmer right now is the most disappointing hitter on this team outside of Moustakas, a title that Mous will never relinquish. I gave Billy Butler hell, and deservedly so, for his horrible start to 2014. Even though Billy still can't figure out how to hit a ball over a fence he has raised his average from .223 at the end of April by hitting right around .300 since. Hosmer also isn't hitting HRs, but he only had 2 doubles in the month of June as well. As Royals fans, you can only hope for a 2nd half surge like he had last year, but right now Hosmer is just another offensive liability at the top of the order.

The Ugly
This can go to non-other than Mike Moustakas, was there ever a doubt? Danny Valencia getting injured ensured that Mous wouldn't spend much time in Omaha. He did have his best month of the year hitting .232 with 4 HRs. Yes, you read that correctly, that's his best month of the year so far. Moustakas will now slip back into a platoon with Valencia now that he has returned from the DL. It has gotten so bad, I am considering a party for all my friends if Moustakas gets over .200 at any point. I am actually getting progressively more depressed just trying to write about it.

Signing Raul Ibanez is still mind-boggling to me. Maybe KC wanted to have someone they could play versus RH pitching so Moustakas could have only the 2nd worst BA in the lineup. I know Justin Maxwell had done absolutely nothing this year, but neither has Raul Ibanez. In April, the Angels amid all of Ibanez's struggles, were praising how great he was to have around the team for his leadership. Well, leadership only goes so far and with the emergence of CJ Cron, the Angels kicked the 42 year old out the door. Is Ibanez gonna teach Butler and Hosmer how to hit HRs? Is he going to show the OF how NOT to play defensively? Having an old guy around taking up roster spot is akin to Manny Ramirez "player/coach," but at least he's in AAA. This makes the ugly list just out of principle.

We've Reached Significance...

At least in terms of statistical sample size we have reached significance. The 2014 KC Royals unfortunately have not. However, this does mean, no more of this "small sample size" crap from me, unless it's a guy who didn't start the year at the Major League level.

First thing I'll say is, I think Steve Balboni's team record for HRs is probably safe. The Royals are reaching new lows of power ineptitude, they are the 2nd team in the last 20 years to have no more than 20 HRs as a team in the first 46 games. Didn't we (me) think that this team had 4 or 5 guys that could hit 20 this year? If the Royals get one guy who gets to 18 it'll be a surprise. I understand The K isn't exactly a HR hitter's paradise, but everyone else seems to be hitting the ball out there. I find myself asking the question, isn't the term "warning track power" an oxymoron? I mean if you can only max out at the warning track is that really even power? No one ever said Mike Moustakas has shallow right field power.. anyway I digress. I am going to try to be positive here, and point out that Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer have lifted the ball much more often lately. One of these years you'd think Eric Hosmer would learn to hit the back half of the baseball and generate backspin. He hit two doubles in the White Sox series that hit the base of the wall only because he had the topspin of an Andre Agassi* forearm on it.

*I understand that I am dating myself by using the Agassi analogy instead of that greasy Spainard Nadal, but it's Memorial Day weekend.. MURICA! 

Billy Butler has a 6 game hit streak going raising his average from a horrible .226 to a disgusting .255. He even had a sacrifice fly in the final game of the White Sox series that people got way too excited about. Butler is still pretty much worthless when it comes to run-producing from the clean up spot. Butler has 45 more ABs than Omar Infante and still trails him by 1 RBI, Butler has an OPS lower than Nori Aoki. We are all hoping that Billy starts the slow climb to league average for clean-up hitters, but I don't know see how the power is just going to come back. By the way, when he ate it crossing first trying to leg out an infield single (because that's going to happen) this is the only thing I could think of. 

In the least surprising news of May, Mike Moustakas has been optioned to Omaha where the Royals hope Moustakas finds some confidence. In my opinion if he can't find it in the PCL, a league known for being a hitter's league, he'll never find it again, at least not for the Royals. If I was Scott Boras I'd ask for a trade to the Diamondbacks. It's a pretty easy pitch; "Hey Kevin (Towers) it's Scott (long silent pause on the other end) Boras.... anyway, so have you seen the numbers my client Mike Moustakas has put up the last two years while playing in Arizona.... No, the fact that it was spring training has nothing to do with it, he just loves the weather."  

I feel that Mous needs to spend the better part of the summer in Omaha regardless, the caveat being injuries in KC. He needs to show over a long period of time he can hit with any level of consistency. The worst thing for him and KC is if he goes down, crushes for 3 weeks, comes back up and immediately regresses back to what got him in Omaha in the first place. 

The Royals starting pitching is starting to come back to Earth, but at 3.55 it's still good for 4th best in the AL. Jeremy Guthrie is giving up a lot of HRs which surprises no one, but the fact that when teams don't hit the ball out of the park they aren't scoring. Danny Duffy damn near threw a perfect game, he is learning how to dial it down as a starter as opposed to just letting it fly. His fastball command was as good as I have ever seen it. Hopefully this is the "eureka" moment we've been wanting Duffy to have, and the end of Bruce Chen as a starter. Wade Davis has been the savior of the bullpen this year. People act surprised that Wade Davis is better as a reliever, but he was a damn good reliever when he was in Tampa before he came to KC. He's ridiculous right now, it seems like he gets 2 strikeouts every inning he pitches. With Greg Holland seemingly allowing multiple runners in most of his appearances people have even asked if Wade Davis should be getting save opportunities, but I hate those people. Holland hasn't been absolute shutdown, but he's only blown 1 save on a solo HR this year, the job is his until he proves he can't do it. 

We have arrived at Memorial Day weekend and the Royals are hovering around .500 which in comparison to Memorial Day weekends of the past is actually pretty promising. This offense has to start clicking now, 2014 is not a season where the Royals can be content with hanging around. 

Not this shit again...

The month of May started, one of my favorite months of the year. The weather is warming up after one of the worst winters in Indianapolis history, my birthday is in May, leaves are on trees and the grass is healthy and green again. However, as a Royals fan I should despise the month of May. I knew KC has had bad months of May in recent years, but I didn't know quite how bad until I read Vahe Gregorian's column in the KC Star. "...77-124 in May since general manager Dayton Moore's first full season in 2007 and 136-231 in May since 2000."  It's astonishing how a team can be 47 games below .500 in a single month over the past 7-plus seasons. This has been the Royals' modus operandi for years now, and it's beyond frustrating. Last year, the Royals went 8-20 in May after a promising start to the season that saw them above .500, that was part of a bigger downfall that saw KC go 5-20 in a 25 game stretch in the month that took them out of playoff contention ultimately.  I am the type of person who discounts April numbers for the most part because April is unlike any other month in the baseball calendar. Once May hits I begin to take trends a lot more seriously, and when the Royals start off by getting curb-stomped by the team they need to catch to become relevant again I get worried. Am I slamming the panic button yet? No, because they are 2 games under .500 and we haven't hit the quarter pole of the season yet. Regardless, this week's slate of games is crucial for many reasons.

The Royals are in San Diego to visit the Padres for three games then head up the Pacific coast to visit the Mariners for a four game set. If you are a huge fan of runs being scored you're going to hate this week. The Royals, Padres, and Mariners are all among the bottom six in the league in OPS.  Personally, I am looking forward to the Royals playing in San Diego as I think they might be built for that stadium better than the home team. They are better in the OF defensively and sport a lot of fly ball pitchers that would benefit quite nicely from the marine layer in PETCO Park (looking at you Guthrie and Vargas). One would look at the Game 1 match-up and think the Royals have a huge advantage with Ventura vs Stults. I don't see it that way, Stults is completely different pitcher in SD than he is on the road. He's quite effective in PETCO and has good numbers over the past two years. Also, he's left handed and the Royals have some aversion to hitting left handed pitchers hard, or at all. KC is coming off a bad series and a long flight, Monday's performance will set the tone for the rest of the week. Guthrie and Erlin face off Tuesday, that is a game where you might actually see some runs scored. Wednesday is the best pitching match-up of the week, Shields vs Cashner. Andrew Cashner at home has been lights out, James Shields on the road has been lights out, should be fun. 

There is a Royals player who I have bagged on all year that is giving me some hope, that's Billy Butler. This past week Billy has hit more balls in the air and squared up a lot more pitches. He even had a little 6 game hitting streak going there for a while, and made a lot of loud outs. This seems like we are getting closer to seeing the Billy Butler we need to see for this team to be effective. It's obnoxious,  to an extent, to be in a NL park for the next 3 days where Billy will probably only play 1 game when he seems so close to breaking out. Salvador Perez needs to start hitting, he's currently on a 1 for 12 skid and his average has dipped to .231 with an OBP under .300. The platoon at third base seems like a full go, with Danny Valencia seeing starts versus left handed pitching, I wanted to believe in Mike Moustakas so badly, but after 1400 ABs in the Majors I am not sure it's ever going to click for him. 

This week for the Royals features 7 games that are extremely winnable albeit on the road. Maybe this is the trip this team needs to get out of this funk and forget about the Detroit series. However, if this week goes South, the hopes of an AL Central title could be gone. Detroit has 7 home games this week versus the two worst starting rotations in baseball with Houston and Minnesota. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers have a 6-1 or even 7-0 week. With KC already 7 back in the loss column a 2-5 road trip coupled with the Tigers taking care of business against inferior opponents will have fans on Sunday afternoon breaking down the Chiefs 7th round pick and how he could really contribute on special teams.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/05/04/5003013/its-not-early-for-the-royals-but.html?fb_action_ids=10201815567418132&fb_action_types=og.comments#storylink=cpy

The 15% Report

Here we are approximately 15% through the Major League Baseball season, so I thought now would be an appropriate time to do another blog to share my thoughts so far on the Royals as well as a few musings I have from around the league. I really did mean to revive this blog this summer, but I basically kept putting off adding a new post since the season preview making excuses. Maybe I have just been inspired by my fellow Lincoln East Spartan and KC Royals fanatic Dave, known in KC as DJ Dave O on Mix 93.3. Dave has launched his new Royals-centric website/podcast at clubhouseconversation.com. Go check it out, the production quality is excellent, but what else would you expect from someone who has spent more than half of their life working in radio?

If you read my season preview, I had grave concerns about the KC Royals starting pitching outside of Shields and I stated that the offense would have to take the next step to get this team into the playoffs. Yeah, about that... As of tonight April 27th, 2014, the Royals starters have the lowest ERA in the American League. James Shields has been the road warrior that he has been known for, 5 of Shields' 6 starts have been on the road and has now won his last 3 starts, all on the road. Jason Vargas has been very solid this year and currently sports a 1.54 ERA over 5 starts. He struck out 6 in his first 7 innings of the season, he's managed to strike out 12 in the 28 innings since, and that’s a little alarming. What's even more alarming to me is the fact that on balls put in play, Vargas has a fly ball percentage at 63%. This is something that you can get away with in April in parks like Det, KC, and Minnesota. As Royals fans we should enjoy Vargas' good fortunes for now. I have never kept it a secret that I am not a big fan of Jeremy Guthrie, but to his credit, I don't think he cares what I think of his pitching ability. Guthrie goes out there and battles, and gives the Royals innings and rarely takes them out of the game. He has given up a HR per start on the season, but he hasn't really given up a big inning yet this season, he's kept the Royals in games while pitching into the 6th in every start. Bruce Chen is the only known example of an Asian lowering the curve, Bruce sports a +7 ERA and a 1.8 WHIP, which is among the league-worst. This is unfortunately does not surprise me, and if this continues he's not long for this starting rotation. Finally the rookie Yordano Ventura has been something special, I don't want to get ahead of myself just yet since it's still just April, but I think I sold this kid short in my season preview. I still have worries about his control, but the fact is he currently sports a 1.8 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, strikes out more than 1 per inning, and has a ground ball percentage that is greater than 50% (my favorite stat). Overall, it's hard to imagine Bruce Chen being any worse, but it's also difficult for me to imagine Vargas being any better. April baseball is hardly indicative of how the season will play out, the warmer weather usually correlates to increased offensive numbers, and that's just what the Royals offense needs.

The Royals offense has been non-existent for most of the season thus far, and if it wasn't for today's 9 run outburst the numbers would be even uglier. The Royals are tied for 13th in the AL in runs scored and On-Base Percentage, and dead last in the AL in HRs and Slugging Percentage. Just looking at those numbers makes my stomach hurt. The core of the lineup (Hosmer, Butler, Gordon) have a combined 1 HR in 24 games, these guys are hitting 3-4-5 day in and day out, if you want to lump Salvador Perez in there who has been hitting 6th most days they have a grand total of 2 HR on the season in that group of 4. Mike Moustakas has doubled that, but Mous hasn't done much of any anything else offensively. Billy Butler is the most frustrating out of this group; Butler is hitting clean-up with a 1.8-1 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a negative WAR. Butler has as many Ks has he has hits, and he's slugging .242. He's still hitting clean-up, after today you can make a strong case to just have Billy and Omar Infante swap in the order. Infante was as productive in 1 game today as Billy has been all season. Omar hit a HR, had 6 RBI, and drove in two runs with productive outs including a sac fly, where get this... HE HIT THE BALL IN THE AIR! Infante has been everything the Royals wanted when they signed him in the off-season, he's been more productive than any 2nd basemen KC had in 2013. Alcides Escobar and Jarrod Dyson (filling in for the already injured Lorenzo Cain) have been hot as of late at the bottom of the order setting the table for the RBI machine known as Infante. The bottom line is the Royals need an improved approach at the plate. They are too swing happy as a team, it's really hard to be 6th in the AL in Batting Average but 15th in OBP. It almost makes you think they get fined if they take a walk. I am actually upset KC misses Brandon Morrow (who walked 8 Red Sox on Saturday) in this series with Toronto, just to see how stubborn the Royals hitters can be!

I do fully expect the laws of averages to slowly take over as we move through these next 4 weeks. Memorial Day is usually a pretty good time to sit back and say "this is significant statistically." The Royals are 12-12 and there is nothing wrong with that overall as they return home this week for 3 vs. Tor and 3 vs. Det starting after an off day Monday. Here is to hoping Sunday's 9 run output leads to bigger and better things.

Random Thoughts From Around the League

I actually believe in the Milwaukee Brewers, outside from the fact Ryan Braun clocked his teammate Jean Segura in the head on Saturday night then pulled a muscle in his chest later in the game. Carlos Gomez who I fully expected to regress in 2014 is proving to everyone that 2013 was no fluke. He is still an idiot who swings out of his shoes and likes to bat flip on deep fly balls, but he's as dangerous of a leadoff as there is in the major leagues. The Brewers offense top to bottom is as good as it gets in baseball; they absolutely crush left handed pitching, and don't have terrible splits versus righties.  The Brewers pitching has been surprisingly solid, Peralta, Estrada, Garza, Lohse, and Gallardo have been among the best in the NL outside of Atlanta (to be discussed) and K-Rod has taken the closer's role from Jim Henderson. Also, as I look at the NL Central I don't think it's nearly as strong of a division as it was last year. Cubs are already eliminated, but that was to be expected. Pitt is about to call up Gregory Polanco from Indianapolis because they can't score. The Reds also have issues scoring, and their leadoff hitter is no better than Jarrod Dyson. The Cards are still a good team and really the only team I can see stopping Milwaukee from winning this division. I think Brewers are headed for a 95 win season. 

What is it with Atlanta and starting pitching? The Braves lose the guy who has the 2nd lowest ERA over the past two seasons as a starter in Kris Medlen (Kershaw is 1st) and Brandon Beachy both to Tommy John. On top of that Mike Minor has missed the entire year thus far with a shoulder issue. So a team that lost their top 3 pitchers (or at least 3 of their top 4 depending on where you slot Teheran) would be set up for disaster in 2014. Well, Atlanta quickly signed Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang to take 2 of those spots as well as bringing David Hale to be their fifth starter and they lead the Majors in starter's ERA. It's already absurd to think that a team that has Aaron Harang starting could lead the league in ERA, but the deeper numbers are even more unbelievable. Atlanta's starter's have allowed a league low 7 HRs, .201 BA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Minor is returning in short order to take David Hale's spot in the rotation. Alex Wood and Teheran look like future stars and Ervin Santana has kept the ball in the park thus far this year. There is no way Harang can keep this up... right? 

Charlie effing Blackmon is tearing the cover off the ball. The scouting report on Blackmon coming into the year was he has no plate discipline and a less than superb understanding of the strike zone, but who cares when you get a hit almost every time. Blackmon is even hitting lefties at a .476 clip; he's solidified the top of the order for the Rockies and made their already good offense even better. Blackmon cannot be kept out of the lineup right now; he's the surprise breakout star of 2014 thus far.  Yes White Sox fans, Jose Abreu is having a great month, but I figured he was going to be a 30HR guy anyway because Chicago was guaranteeing him 600 ABs this year, and everyone knew what he could do, Blackmon was supposed to be a platoon player vs. RH pitching only. 

George Springer was supposed to be a breakout player for the Astros in 2014 after his near 40/40 minor league season. Right now Springer looks like he did in spring training, awful. He's striking out 30% of the time, hitting .170, and only produced 2 RBIs from the cleanup spot. This kid who has been deemed the next big thing, right now looks like Drew Stubbs. He hasn't shown the ability to hit big league hitting yet and I am not sure he's going to going to become the savoir the Astros franchise needs. But then again... small sample size.      

2014 Kansas City Royals: The Ceiling and the Floor.

I have been a Royals fan since I can remember. Baseball was the first sport I gravitated towards, and most of my fondest early memories stem from time watching the Royals play at The K. The problem is, the last time the Royals were in the playoffs I was 3 years old and have no memories from that season. So in my life, I have not been able to enjoy the taste of playoff baseball. There has been a few years where the Royals teased the fans, such as 2003 when the Royals stormed out to a 7 game lead in the division at the All-Star break, only to crumble in the 2nd half of the season and finish only 4 games over .500 and in 3rd place in the division. Last season the Royals put together a great second half and finished 43-27 to go from 6 games under .500 to being in the wild card hunt until the last week of the season thus giving fans a reason to watch in September for the first time in a decade. So naturally, Royals fans are anticipating the 2014 run to the post-season. Personally, I am looking forward to this season with a lot of caution.

Why the Royals will make the playoffs:

The Royals offense will produce the most runs they have scored since 2003, the last time the Royals topped 800 runs. The Royals were 11th in runs scored in the AL last year, a lot of that stems from next to nothing from 3rd base, 2nd base, and right field. The Royals filled the gap in RF in Norichika Aoki, who will also become the Royals lead off hitter. Aoki who has 2 years of MLB experience came over from the Milwaukee Brewers. Aoki is a contact guy, he almost never strikes out, but also he never walks. In 674 PA last year Aoki had 55 walks and 40 strikeouts, that's rather amazing. The Royals are one of the most active teams in baseball on the base paths and Aoki is a career 50 for 70 in the stolen base department. Omar Infante was signed to fill the massive Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella/Emilio Bonifacio hole at 2nd base. Infante is another contact guy who doesn't walk. The concerning issue here is the lack of any depth at 2nd base for KC and Infante has been nicked up all spring, add that to the fact he has never played more than 149 games in a single season.  The positive here is, KC now has table setters at the top the lineup they have coveted for years.

The Royals, unlike most MLB teams, has a core of their lineup made up completely of homegrown talent. Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Mike Moustakas have been Royals their entire professional careers. The Royals success on offense greatly depends on these five men. Maybe none more important than Mike Moustakas. Mous had his second straight great spring in 2014, and if the Royals want to be a playoff team they better hope that it actually translates into regular season success because it sure didn't last year. Mike Moustakas in 2013 was the first guy you'd pick if you were having a contest to see who can hit the ball out of a corn silo, unfortunately, that's not a highly regarded skill. Moustakas, to his credit, definitely worked hard this off season, he played winter ball, noticeably trimmed down and seems determined to build off the improvements he made in the second half of last season.

Alex Gordon the elder statesmen of the quintet at 30 years old gets to move to 5th in the order after the acquisitions of Aoki and Infante. This is what the organization envisioned from Gordon when they drafted him out of Nebraska as the Golden Spikes Award winner, and it's finally time to see if he can become a consistent run producer in the middle of the lineup after a couple of years at the top of the order. My biggest concern for the 3-7 hitters in the Royals every day line up is, who is going to provide instant offense? Hosmer, Butler, Gordon, and Perez all have groundball to flyball ratios that are not ideal for high power numbers. Butler hit 29 HR two years and from the looks of it, that seems to be his ceiling. Butler's number of doubles has also decreased each of the last 4 seasons, this guy is supposed to be in his prime at 28. Hosmer hit 19 as a rookie and 17 last year after a slow start, maybe at 24 years old he begins to lift the ball more this season and we see him top 25 HR. Perez kind of fooled fans in 2012 by hitting 11 HR in 289 AB, then in 2013 hitting 13 in 496 AB. Again, Perez also is only 24 years old (will be May 10th), but I don't see the power potential as much with him as I do with Hosmer. It's going to take a team effort from these five to put up the power numbers. I feel 4 of the 5 could top 20HR this year, as a group, if they hit 95HR it will be a major win for the Royals lineup.

The rest of the order is filled out by the two starters the Royals got from the Grienke trade: Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. Each player's value is tied to their great fielding at center and SS respectively, but both did absolutely nothing at the plate last season. Lorenzo Cain playing 135 games would be a win for the Royals, he'll be 28 in two weeks and hasn't stayed healthy yet as a Royal. He's not going to hit for power and his average has never been too impressive either, a healthy .270 from Cain and gold glove caliber defense in center would be a good season. Escobar dropped off the face of the Earth offensively last year, his average dropped 59 points. What Escobar does do quite well when he happens to get a hit (because he isn't walking) is he steals bases. Even with hitting .234 last year with a .259 OBP Escobar stole 22 bases without being caught, that was down from 35 steals the previous season when he hit .293. I don't expect Escobar to suddenly be able to take a walk in 2014, but I do expect a better average. If Esky can get his average back into the .270s and steal 30 bases for the Royals in 2014, there will be no complaints.

I feel this is the most balanced lineup the Royals have had a very long time. The beauty of it is, players fit into their roles and it won't allow for the Ned Yost factor of changing the lineup every other day to "tinker." Obviously a lot of this relies on health, and with guys like Infante and Cain, nothing is guaranteed. Even the weakest hitters in this lineup more than make up for their shortcomings in the batter's box with their ability to save runs on defense. This vast improvement over 2013 will be the reason the Royals are playing in October.

Why the Royals will miss the playoffs

The Royals are starting the season with James Shields a legitimate number 1, a horse of a pitcher that for seven straight seasons has thrown over 200 innings, won double digit games, and averages close to 8 K/9. If James Shields just keeps being James Shields the Royals will be fine once every 5 days. It's the other 4 days that have me scared out of my mind. The Royals do not have another guy who I would consider anything other than a low-level 3rd starting pitcher in the major leagues.

Jason Vargas was added this off season to fill in the spot vacated by Ervin Santana that the Royals never intended to re-sign and for good reason, Santana has a weird notion that's he's a number 2 in the majors, which is just not true, but I digress. Vargas has had 3 seasons in which he has thrown over 190 innings in the majors, all coming for the Mariners. In 2012 he surrendered 35 HR... in Seattle. Vargas is a career 5.9 K/9 with 2-1 K/BB ratio, that's not overly impressive, and now he's being asked to be a team's second starter.

Now don't get me wrong, I love Yordano Ventura's arm, and after the baseball world got to see him pitch vs Texas' starters in Surprise a couple of weeks ago, so does everyone else. Yordano is NOT Jose Fernandez Royals fans. In fact, the closest thing we've ever seen to Jose Fernandez was Doc Gooden's rookie year. So let's not get confused. Ventura is still a very young, very raw pitcher who is still working out his secondary stuff. I think he can develop into in a solid number 2 for the Royals for years to come but I am apprehensive to put my 2014 expectations too high. He's still never thrown more than 150 innings in one season. If Ventura's 2014 numbers were something like 170 innings, 150K, and a 3.70 ERA, I'd say he had a successful rookie year.

Jeremy Guthrie the Royals 4th starter was, in my opinion, the luckiest pitcher in the AL last season. I have never been a Guthrie fan, I feel like he's nothing more than a AAAA starting pitcher. He gave up 236 hits in less than 212 innings, including 30HR while striking out a career worst 4.7 per 9. Yet he won 15 games somehow, again another reason why a pitchers win/loss record should not be considered when evaluating skill. Guthrie is 35 years old next week, and the one positive thing I can say about him is that he has been durable, but his arm has a lot of mileage on it. I am expecting a major reality check for Guthrie in 2014, so much so I think if he's starting for the Royals in August this team will not be in the playoff race.

The 5th starter is someone Hawk Harrelson calls "Cy Chen" because Bruce Chen dominates the White Sox. Most things I said about Guthrie apply to Bruce. Chen is older (37 in June), he struck out almost 6 per 9 last season. Two seasons ago as a full time starter for KC he gave up 33 HRs while posting a 5.07 ERA, which makes me very doubtful that he will be able to duplicate last years success for a full season in 2014. Chen was forced into starting halfway through the season and did remarkably well in his 15 games, but I would not be caught dead making a bet that his ERA will be sub-4 in 2014.

The Royals are very fortunate to boast one of the top defenses in the league along with playing 81 games in a pitcher friendly park like The K, but the fact remains that Vargas, Guthrie, and Chen are 3 pitchers that do not miss the opponents bats, that's a very dangerous way to live as a starting pitcher. It's very strange to write that my biggest worry about the Royals is their starting pitching when they led the league in ERA last year, but I can't shake this feeling.


The Ceiling: 95 wins
The Floor: 74 wins

I really think this Royals has a ton of potential, and if things go very well they can win this division. I don't see the winner of the AL Central having over 90-94 wins, it's more competitive than last year.

If Ventura gets overwhelmed by major league hitting, Guthrie and Chen regress, the young middle of the lineup doesn't take the next step, or injuries strike this season won't fulfill many of the fans high hopes.

Personally, I feel Hosmer, Mous, and Perez will take the next steps in their development and KC will be able to count on their defense. KC will score over 800 runs in 2014 and cover up the deficiencies in starting pitching.

AL Central
1) Detroit 93-69
2) KC 91-71 (wild card)
3) Cleveland 81-81
4) Minnesota 74-88
5) White Sox 70-92