We've Reached Significance...

At least in terms of statistical sample size we have reached significance. The 2014 KC Royals unfortunately have not. However, this does mean, no more of this "small sample size" crap from me, unless it's a guy who didn't start the year at the Major League level.

First thing I'll say is, I think Steve Balboni's team record for HRs is probably safe. The Royals are reaching new lows of power ineptitude, they are the 2nd team in the last 20 years to have no more than 20 HRs as a team in the first 46 games. Didn't we (me) think that this team had 4 or 5 guys that could hit 20 this year? If the Royals get one guy who gets to 18 it'll be a surprise. I understand The K isn't exactly a HR hitter's paradise, but everyone else seems to be hitting the ball out there. I find myself asking the question, isn't the term "warning track power" an oxymoron? I mean if you can only max out at the warning track is that really even power? No one ever said Mike Moustakas has shallow right field power.. anyway I digress. I am going to try to be positive here, and point out that Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer have lifted the ball much more often lately. One of these years you'd think Eric Hosmer would learn to hit the back half of the baseball and generate backspin. He hit two doubles in the White Sox series that hit the base of the wall only because he had the topspin of an Andre Agassi* forearm on it.

*I understand that I am dating myself by using the Agassi analogy instead of that greasy Spainard Nadal, but it's Memorial Day weekend.. MURICA! 

Billy Butler has a 6 game hit streak going raising his average from a horrible .226 to a disgusting .255. He even had a sacrifice fly in the final game of the White Sox series that people got way too excited about. Butler is still pretty much worthless when it comes to run-producing from the clean up spot. Butler has 45 more ABs than Omar Infante and still trails him by 1 RBI, Butler has an OPS lower than Nori Aoki. We are all hoping that Billy starts the slow climb to league average for clean-up hitters, but I don't know see how the power is just going to come back. By the way, when he ate it crossing first trying to leg out an infield single (because that's going to happen) this is the only thing I could think of. 

In the least surprising news of May, Mike Moustakas has been optioned to Omaha where the Royals hope Moustakas finds some confidence. In my opinion if he can't find it in the PCL, a league known for being a hitter's league, he'll never find it again, at least not for the Royals. If I was Scott Boras I'd ask for a trade to the Diamondbacks. It's a pretty easy pitch; "Hey Kevin (Towers) it's Scott (long silent pause on the other end) Boras.... anyway, so have you seen the numbers my client Mike Moustakas has put up the last two years while playing in Arizona.... No, the fact that it was spring training has nothing to do with it, he just loves the weather."  

I feel that Mous needs to spend the better part of the summer in Omaha regardless, the caveat being injuries in KC. He needs to show over a long period of time he can hit with any level of consistency. The worst thing for him and KC is if he goes down, crushes for 3 weeks, comes back up and immediately regresses back to what got him in Omaha in the first place. 

The Royals starting pitching is starting to come back to Earth, but at 3.55 it's still good for 4th best in the AL. Jeremy Guthrie is giving up a lot of HRs which surprises no one, but the fact that when teams don't hit the ball out of the park they aren't scoring. Danny Duffy damn near threw a perfect game, he is learning how to dial it down as a starter as opposed to just letting it fly. His fastball command was as good as I have ever seen it. Hopefully this is the "eureka" moment we've been wanting Duffy to have, and the end of Bruce Chen as a starter. Wade Davis has been the savior of the bullpen this year. People act surprised that Wade Davis is better as a reliever, but he was a damn good reliever when he was in Tampa before he came to KC. He's ridiculous right now, it seems like he gets 2 strikeouts every inning he pitches. With Greg Holland seemingly allowing multiple runners in most of his appearances people have even asked if Wade Davis should be getting save opportunities, but I hate those people. Holland hasn't been absolute shutdown, but he's only blown 1 save on a solo HR this year, the job is his until he proves he can't do it. 

We have arrived at Memorial Day weekend and the Royals are hovering around .500 which in comparison to Memorial Day weekends of the past is actually pretty promising. This offense has to start clicking now, 2014 is not a season where the Royals can be content with hanging around. 

Not this shit again...

The month of May started, one of my favorite months of the year. The weather is warming up after one of the worst winters in Indianapolis history, my birthday is in May, leaves are on trees and the grass is healthy and green again. However, as a Royals fan I should despise the month of May. I knew KC has had bad months of May in recent years, but I didn't know quite how bad until I read Vahe Gregorian's column in the KC Star. "...77-124 in May since general manager Dayton Moore's first full season in 2007 and 136-231 in May since 2000."  It's astonishing how a team can be 47 games below .500 in a single month over the past 7-plus seasons. This has been the Royals' modus operandi for years now, and it's beyond frustrating. Last year, the Royals went 8-20 in May after a promising start to the season that saw them above .500, that was part of a bigger downfall that saw KC go 5-20 in a 25 game stretch in the month that took them out of playoff contention ultimately.  I am the type of person who discounts April numbers for the most part because April is unlike any other month in the baseball calendar. Once May hits I begin to take trends a lot more seriously, and when the Royals start off by getting curb-stomped by the team they need to catch to become relevant again I get worried. Am I slamming the panic button yet? No, because they are 2 games under .500 and we haven't hit the quarter pole of the season yet. Regardless, this week's slate of games is crucial for many reasons.

The Royals are in San Diego to visit the Padres for three games then head up the Pacific coast to visit the Mariners for a four game set. If you are a huge fan of runs being scored you're going to hate this week. The Royals, Padres, and Mariners are all among the bottom six in the league in OPS.  Personally, I am looking forward to the Royals playing in San Diego as I think they might be built for that stadium better than the home team. They are better in the OF defensively and sport a lot of fly ball pitchers that would benefit quite nicely from the marine layer in PETCO Park (looking at you Guthrie and Vargas). One would look at the Game 1 match-up and think the Royals have a huge advantage with Ventura vs Stults. I don't see it that way, Stults is completely different pitcher in SD than he is on the road. He's quite effective in PETCO and has good numbers over the past two years. Also, he's left handed and the Royals have some aversion to hitting left handed pitchers hard, or at all. KC is coming off a bad series and a long flight, Monday's performance will set the tone for the rest of the week. Guthrie and Erlin face off Tuesday, that is a game where you might actually see some runs scored. Wednesday is the best pitching match-up of the week, Shields vs Cashner. Andrew Cashner at home has been lights out, James Shields on the road has been lights out, should be fun. 

There is a Royals player who I have bagged on all year that is giving me some hope, that's Billy Butler. This past week Billy has hit more balls in the air and squared up a lot more pitches. He even had a little 6 game hitting streak going there for a while, and made a lot of loud outs. This seems like we are getting closer to seeing the Billy Butler we need to see for this team to be effective. It's obnoxious,  to an extent, to be in a NL park for the next 3 days where Billy will probably only play 1 game when he seems so close to breaking out. Salvador Perez needs to start hitting, he's currently on a 1 for 12 skid and his average has dipped to .231 with an OBP under .300. The platoon at third base seems like a full go, with Danny Valencia seeing starts versus left handed pitching, I wanted to believe in Mike Moustakas so badly, but after 1400 ABs in the Majors I am not sure it's ever going to click for him. 

This week for the Royals features 7 games that are extremely winnable albeit on the road. Maybe this is the trip this team needs to get out of this funk and forget about the Detroit series. However, if this week goes South, the hopes of an AL Central title could be gone. Detroit has 7 home games this week versus the two worst starting rotations in baseball with Houston and Minnesota. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers have a 6-1 or even 7-0 week. With KC already 7 back in the loss column a 2-5 road trip coupled with the Tigers taking care of business against inferior opponents will have fans on Sunday afternoon breaking down the Chiefs 7th round pick and how he could really contribute on special teams.

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