23 Days Later

With 22 games in the next 23 days including seven against the best team in baseball, the Oakland Athletics, as well as five games in NL ballparks, it's safe to say the Royals playoff hopes rely on success in the next three-plus weeks. As we currently stand on July 29th, the Royals sit 2.5 games back of the second wild card, in a jumbled mess with the Yankees, Mariners, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay all within 5 games of the Toronto Blue Jays.

This year's 2nd wildcard chase is different than that of the past 2 years where 91 wins was the minimum to get your team in the conversation. With Oakland and the Angels of Orange County Los Angeles (whatever they are) both on pace for 100 and 97 wins respectively, and the fact that the rest of the AL outside of those two teams has been pretty much a pile of similar teams, (8 teams within 7 games of the 3rd best record in the AL) this wildcard race could come down to a "first to 88 wins" scenario.

For the Royals to get to 88 wins, they'd have to play the rest of their season at 35-23. Not exactly easy, but it's not impossible, the Rays have played 13 games over .500 since June 28th and that was with a four day all-star break thrown in there. The issue comes in when you look at who the Royals have on the upcoming schedule. The aforementioned 7 vs the A's, but there is also 3 vs the Giants, 3 at Arizona, and 2 at Colorado. Now most people would see Arizona and Colorado and think, big deal, they are bad teams. This is very true, but it's not easy for KC to go into a NL park and lose Butler's bat (assuming Hosmer is healthy) from an already below average offense.

The next three-plus weeks will most likely define the Royals faithful's plans for September. Either it will be spent on the edge of our seats at home (or hopefully at The K) with every pitch, or it'll be spent tinkering with our fantasy football lineups and checking out new fall shows on network TV. Thus making the upcoming 3 game set at home against the struggling Minnesota Twins extremely important. The Twins boast what is the worst starting pitching in MLB, the Royals get Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, and Kevin Correia all of whom have struggled this year. I don't like to put too much emphasis on a single series, but anything less than a sweep here seems like a disappointment. Especially going into the weekend where the Royals travel to Oakland to face Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez. The worst pitcher of that group is Jesse Chavez with his 3.44 ERA and 8.5 K per 9 (better numbers than James Shields). It is imperative the Royals gain some offensive confidence against the Twins early in the week.

After the trip to Oakland, the Royals get their 1 off day of the stretch as they travel to the desert to the play the team with the worst home record in the NL, the Diamondbacks. Then KC comes home for a weekend series with the Giants (29-20 on the road currently) followed by a 4 game set with the Athletics. Those 7 games against the bay area will undoubtedly make that week the biggest home stand of the season for the Royals, provided they get through the previous 9 games without a major downswing. Then it's back on the road for 6 match ups against pitching optional Minnesota (4) and Colorado (2).

I'd love to sit here and predict what I think is going to happen, but after watching this team in 2014 one thing is clear, predictions are pointless. I cannot remember a Royals team that has endured so many peaks and valleys. In chronological order in this season already: Won 5, Lost 5, Lost 7 of 9, Won 10, Lost 7 of 9, Lost 10 of 13, Won 5. The most recent streak just ended with their loss on Sunday to the Indians. I like to think KC has the ability to turn the current roll into a won 8 of 9 after this Twins series, but they could just as easily turn it into a lose 6 of 7 by Monday. If the Royals get to the August 21st off day at 66-60 it'd be a great sign, if they are under .500 on August 21st it might be too late.