I have been a Royals fan since I can remember. Baseball was the first sport I gravitated towards, and most of my fondest early memories stem from time watching the Royals play at The K. The problem is, the last time the Royals were in the playoffs I was 3 years old and have no memories from that season. So in my life, I have not been able to enjoy the taste of playoff baseball. There has been a few years where the Royals teased the fans, such as 2003 when the Royals stormed out to a 7 game lead in the division at the All-Star break, only to crumble in the 2nd half of the season and finish only 4 games over .500 and in 3rd place in the division. Last season the Royals put together a great second half and finished 43-27 to go from 6 games under .500 to being in the wild card hunt until the last week of the season thus giving fans a reason to watch in September for the first time in a decade. So naturally, Royals fans are anticipating the 2014 run to the post-season. Personally, I am looking forward to this season with a lot of caution.
Why the Royals will make the playoffs:
The Royals offense will produce the most runs they have scored since 2003, the last time the Royals topped 800 runs. The Royals were 11th in runs scored in the AL last year, a lot of that stems from next to nothing from 3rd base, 2nd base, and right field. The Royals filled the gap in RF in Norichika Aoki, who will also become the Royals lead off hitter. Aoki who has 2 years of MLB experience came over from the Milwaukee Brewers. Aoki is a contact guy, he almost never strikes out, but also he never walks. In 674 PA last year Aoki had 55 walks and 40 strikeouts, that's rather amazing. The Royals are one of the most active teams in baseball on the base paths and Aoki is a career 50 for 70 in the stolen base department. Omar Infante was signed to fill the massive Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella/Emilio Bonifacio hole at 2nd base. Infante is another contact guy who doesn't walk. The concerning issue here is the lack of any depth at 2nd base for KC and Infante has been nicked up all spring, add that to the fact he has never played more than 149 games in a single season. The positive here is, KC now has table setters at the top the lineup they have coveted for years.
The Royals, unlike most MLB teams, has a core of their lineup made up completely of homegrown talent. Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Mike Moustakas have been Royals their entire professional careers. The Royals success on offense greatly depends on these five men. Maybe none more important than Mike Moustakas. Mous had his second straight great spring in 2014, and if the Royals want to be a playoff team they better hope that it actually translates into regular season success because it sure didn't last year. Mike Moustakas in 2013 was the first guy you'd pick if you were having a contest to see who can hit the ball out of a corn silo, unfortunately, that's not a highly regarded skill. Moustakas, to his credit, definitely worked hard this off season, he played winter ball, noticeably trimmed down and seems determined to build off the improvements he made in the second half of last season.
Alex Gordon the elder statesmen of the quintet at 30 years old gets to move to 5th in the order after the acquisitions of Aoki and Infante. This is what the organization envisioned from Gordon when they drafted him out of Nebraska as the Golden Spikes Award winner, and it's finally time to see if he can become a consistent run producer in the middle of the lineup after a couple of years at the top of the order. My biggest concern for the 3-7 hitters in the Royals every day line up is, who is going to provide instant offense? Hosmer, Butler, Gordon, and Perez all have groundball to flyball ratios that are not ideal for high power numbers. Butler hit 29 HR two years and from the looks of it, that seems to be his ceiling. Butler's number of doubles has also decreased each of the last 4 seasons, this guy is supposed to be in his prime at 28. Hosmer hit 19 as a rookie and 17 last year after a slow start, maybe at 24 years old he begins to lift the ball more this season and we see him top 25 HR. Perez kind of fooled fans in 2012 by hitting 11 HR in 289 AB, then in 2013 hitting 13 in 496 AB. Again, Perez also is only 24 years old (will be May 10th), but I don't see the power potential as much with him as I do with Hosmer. It's going to take a team effort from these five to put up the power numbers. I feel 4 of the 5 could top 20HR this year, as a group, if they hit 95HR it will be a major win for the Royals lineup.
The rest of the order is filled out by the two starters the Royals got from the Grienke trade: Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. Each player's value is tied to their great fielding at center and SS respectively, but both did absolutely nothing at the plate last season. Lorenzo Cain playing 135 games would be a win for the Royals, he'll be 28 in two weeks and hasn't stayed healthy yet as a Royal. He's not going to hit for power and his average has never been too impressive either, a healthy .270 from Cain and gold glove caliber defense in center would be a good season. Escobar dropped off the face of the Earth offensively last year, his average dropped 59 points. What Escobar does do quite well when he happens to get a hit (because he isn't walking) is he steals bases. Even with hitting .234 last year with a .259 OBP Escobar stole 22 bases without being caught, that was down from 35 steals the previous season when he hit .293. I don't expect Escobar to suddenly be able to take a walk in 2014, but I do expect a better average. If Esky can get his average back into the .270s and steal 30 bases for the Royals in 2014, there will be no complaints.
I feel this is the most balanced lineup the Royals have had a very long time. The beauty of it is, players fit into their roles and it won't allow for the Ned Yost factor of changing the lineup every other day to "tinker." Obviously a lot of this relies on health, and with guys like Infante and Cain, nothing is guaranteed. Even the weakest hitters in this lineup more than make up for their shortcomings in the batter's box with their ability to save runs on defense. This vast improvement over 2013 will be the reason the Royals are playing in October.
Why the Royals will miss the playoffs
The Royals are starting the season with James Shields a legitimate number 1, a horse of a pitcher that for seven straight seasons has thrown over 200 innings, won double digit games, and averages close to 8 K/9. If James Shields just keeps being James Shields the Royals will be fine once every 5 days. It's the other 4 days that have me scared out of my mind. The Royals do not have another guy who I would consider anything other than a low-level 3rd starting pitcher in the major leagues.
Jason Vargas was added this off season to fill in the spot vacated by Ervin Santana that the Royals never intended to re-sign and for good reason, Santana has a weird notion that's he's a number 2 in the majors, which is just not true, but I digress. Vargas has had 3 seasons in which he has thrown over 190 innings in the majors, all coming for the Mariners. In 2012 he surrendered 35 HR... in Seattle. Vargas is a career 5.9 K/9 with 2-1 K/BB ratio, that's not overly impressive, and now he's being asked to be a team's second starter.
Now don't get me wrong, I love Yordano Ventura's arm, and after the baseball world got to see him pitch vs Texas' starters in Surprise a couple of weeks ago, so does everyone else. Yordano is NOT Jose Fernandez Royals fans. In fact, the closest thing we've ever seen to Jose Fernandez was Doc Gooden's rookie year. So let's not get confused. Ventura is still a very young, very raw pitcher who is still working out his secondary stuff. I think he can develop into in a solid number 2 for the Royals for years to come but I am apprehensive to put my 2014 expectations too high. He's still never thrown more than 150 innings in one season. If Ventura's 2014 numbers were something like 170 innings, 150K, and a 3.70 ERA, I'd say he had a successful rookie year.
Jeremy Guthrie the Royals 4th starter was, in my opinion, the luckiest pitcher in the AL last season. I have never been a Guthrie fan, I feel like he's nothing more than a AAAA starting pitcher. He gave up 236 hits in less than 212 innings, including 30HR while striking out a career worst 4.7 per 9. Yet he won 15 games somehow, again another reason why a pitchers win/loss record should not be considered when evaluating skill. Guthrie is 35 years old next week, and the one positive thing I can say about him is that he has been durable, but his arm has a lot of mileage on it. I am expecting a major reality check for Guthrie in 2014, so much so I think if he's starting for the Royals in August this team will not be in the playoff race.
The 5th starter is someone Hawk Harrelson calls "Cy Chen" because Bruce Chen dominates the White Sox. Most things I said about Guthrie apply to Bruce. Chen is older (37 in June), he struck out almost 6 per 9 last season. Two seasons ago as a full time starter for KC he gave up 33 HRs while posting a 5.07 ERA, which makes me very doubtful that he will be able to duplicate last years success for a full season in 2014. Chen was forced into starting halfway through the season and did remarkably well in his 15 games, but I would not be caught dead making a bet that his ERA will be sub-4 in 2014.
The Royals are very fortunate to boast one of the top defenses in the league along with playing 81 games in a pitcher friendly park like The K, but the fact remains that Vargas, Guthrie, and Chen are 3 pitchers that do not miss the opponents bats, that's a very dangerous way to live as a starting pitcher. It's very strange to write that my biggest worry about the Royals is their starting pitching when they led the league in ERA last year, but I can't shake this feeling.
The Ceiling: 95 wins
The Floor: 74 wins
I really think this Royals has a ton of potential, and if things go very well they can win this division. I don't see the winner of the AL Central having over 90-94 wins, it's more competitive than last year.
If Ventura gets overwhelmed by major league hitting, Guthrie and Chen regress, the young middle of the lineup doesn't take the next step, or injuries strike this season won't fulfill many of the fans high hopes.
Personally, I feel Hosmer, Mous, and Perez will take the next steps in their development and KC will be able to count on their defense. KC will score over 800 runs in 2014 and cover up the deficiencies in starting pitching.
AL Central
1) Detroit 93-69
2) KC 91-71 (wild card)
3) Cleveland 81-81
4) Minnesota 74-88
5) White Sox 70-92
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