Here we are approximately 15% through the Major League Baseball
season, so I thought now would be an appropriate time to do another blog to
share my thoughts so far on the Royals as well as a few musings I have from
around the league. I really did mean to revive this blog this summer, but I
basically kept putting off adding a new post since the season preview making
excuses. Maybe I have just been inspired by my fellow Lincoln East Spartan and
KC Royals fanatic Dave, known in KC as DJ Dave O on Mix 93.3. Dave has launched
his new Royals-centric website/podcast at clubhouseconversation.com. Go
check it out, the production quality is excellent, but what else would you
expect from someone who has spent more than half of their life working in
radio?
If you read my season preview, I had grave
concerns about the KC Royals starting pitching outside of Shields and I stated
that the offense would have to take the next step to get this team into the
playoffs. Yeah, about that... As of tonight April 27th, 2014, the Royals
starters have the lowest ERA in the American League. James Shields has been the
road warrior that he has been known for, 5 of Shields' 6 starts have been on
the road and has now won his last 3 starts, all on the road. Jason Vargas has
been very solid this year and currently sports a 1.54 ERA over 5 starts. He
struck out 6 in his first 7 innings of the season, he's managed to strike out
12 in the 28 innings since, and that’s a little alarming. What's even more
alarming to me is the fact that on balls put in play, Vargas has a fly ball
percentage at 63%. This is something that you can get away with in April in
parks like Det, KC, and Minnesota. As Royals fans we should enjoy Vargas' good
fortunes for now. I have never kept it a secret that I am not a big fan of
Jeremy Guthrie, but to his credit, I don't think he cares what I think of his
pitching ability. Guthrie goes out there and battles, and gives the Royals
innings and rarely takes them out of the game. He has given up a HR per start
on the season, but he hasn't really given up a big inning yet this season, he's
kept the Royals in games while pitching into the 6th in every start. Bruce Chen
is the only known example of an Asian lowering the curve, Bruce sports a +7 ERA
and a 1.8 WHIP, which is among the league-worst. This is unfortunately does not
surprise me, and if this continues he's not long for this starting rotation.
Finally the rookie Yordano Ventura has been something special, I don't want to
get ahead of myself just yet since it's still just April, but I think I sold
this kid short in my season preview. I still have worries about his control,
but the fact is he currently sports a 1.8 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, strikes out more
than 1 per inning, and has a ground ball percentage that is greater than 50%
(my favorite stat). Overall, it's hard to imagine Bruce Chen being any worse,
but it's also difficult for me to imagine Vargas being any better. April
baseball is hardly indicative of how the season will play out, the warmer
weather usually correlates to increased offensive numbers, and that's just what
the Royals offense needs.
The Royals offense has been non-existent
for most of the season thus far, and if it wasn't for today's 9 run outburst
the numbers would be even uglier. The Royals are tied for 13th in the AL in
runs scored and On-Base Percentage, and dead last in the AL in HRs and Slugging
Percentage. Just looking at those numbers makes my stomach hurt. The core of
the lineup (Hosmer, Butler, Gordon) have a combined 1 HR in 24 games, these guys
are hitting 3-4-5 day in and day out, if you want to lump Salvador Perez in
there who has been hitting 6th most days they have a grand total of 2 HR on the
season in that group of 4. Mike Moustakas has doubled that, but Mous hasn't
done much of any anything else offensively. Billy Butler is the most
frustrating out of this group; Butler is hitting clean-up with a 1.8-1 ground
ball to fly ball ratio and a negative WAR. Butler has as many Ks has he has
hits, and he's slugging .242. He's still hitting clean-up, after today you can
make a strong case to just have Billy and Omar Infante swap in the order.
Infante was as productive in 1 game today as Billy has been all season. Omar
hit a HR, had 6 RBI, and drove in two runs with productive outs including a sac
fly, where get this... HE HIT THE BALL IN THE AIR! Infante has been everything
the Royals wanted when they signed him in the off-season, he's been more
productive than any 2nd basemen KC had in 2013. Alcides Escobar and Jarrod
Dyson (filling in for the already injured Lorenzo Cain) have been hot as of
late at the bottom of the order setting the table for the RBI machine known as
Infante. The bottom line is the Royals need an improved approach at the plate.
They are too swing happy as a team, it's really hard to be 6th in the AL in
Batting Average but 15th in OBP. It almost makes you think they get fined if
they take a walk. I am actually upset KC misses Brandon Morrow (who walked 8
Red Sox on Saturday) in this series with Toronto, just to see how stubborn the Royals
hitters can be!
I do fully expect the laws of averages to
slowly take over as we move through these next 4 weeks. Memorial Day is usually
a pretty good time to sit back and say "this is significant
statistically." The Royals are 12-12 and there is nothing wrong with that
overall as they return home this week for 3 vs. Tor and 3 vs. Det starting
after an off day Monday. Here is to hoping Sunday's 9 run output leads to
bigger and better things.
Random Thoughts From Around the League
I actually believe in the Milwaukee
Brewers, outside from the fact Ryan Braun clocked his teammate Jean Segura in
the head on Saturday night then pulled a muscle in his chest later in the game.
Carlos Gomez who I fully expected to regress in 2014 is proving to everyone that
2013 was no fluke. He is still an idiot who swings out of his shoes and likes
to bat flip on deep fly balls, but he's as dangerous of a leadoff as there is
in the major leagues. The Brewers offense top to bottom is as good as it gets
in baseball; they absolutely crush left handed pitching, and don't have
terrible splits versus righties. The Brewers pitching has been
surprisingly solid, Peralta, Estrada, Garza, Lohse, and Gallardo have been
among the best in the NL outside of Atlanta (to be discussed) and K-Rod has
taken the closer's role from Jim Henderson. Also, as I look at the NL Central I
don't think it's nearly as strong of a division as it was last year. Cubs are
already eliminated, but that was to be expected. Pitt is about to call up
Gregory Polanco from Indianapolis because they can't score. The Reds also have
issues scoring, and their leadoff hitter is no better than Jarrod Dyson. The
Cards are still a good team and really the only team I can see stopping
Milwaukee from winning this division. I think Brewers are headed for a 95 win
season.
What is it with Atlanta and starting
pitching? The Braves lose the guy who has the 2nd lowest ERA over the past two
seasons as a starter in Kris Medlen (Kershaw is 1st) and Brandon Beachy both to
Tommy John. On top of that Mike Minor has missed the entire year thus far with
a shoulder issue. So a team that lost their top 3 pitchers (or at least 3 of
their top 4 depending on where you slot Teheran) would be set up for disaster
in 2014. Well, Atlanta quickly signed Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang to take 2
of those spots as well as bringing David Hale to be their fifth starter and
they lead the Majors in starter's ERA. It's already absurd to think that a team
that has Aaron Harang starting could lead the league in ERA, but the deeper
numbers are even more unbelievable. Atlanta's starter's have allowed a league
low 7 HRs, .201 BA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Minor is returning in short order to
take David Hale's spot in the rotation. Alex Wood and Teheran look like future
stars and Ervin Santana has kept the ball in the park thus far this year. There
is no way Harang can keep this up... right?
Charlie effing Blackmon is tearing the
cover off the ball. The scouting report on Blackmon coming into the year was he has no plate discipline and a less than superb understanding of the
strike zone, but who cares when you get a hit almost every time. Blackmon is
even hitting lefties at a .476 clip; he's solidified the top of the order for
the Rockies and made their already good offense even better. Blackmon cannot be
kept out of the lineup right now; he's the surprise breakout star of 2014 thus
far. Yes White Sox fans, Jose Abreu is having a great month, but I
figured he was going to be a 30HR guy anyway because Chicago was guaranteeing
him 600 ABs this year, and everyone knew what he could do, Blackmon was
supposed to be a platoon player vs. RH pitching only.
George Springer was supposed to be a
breakout player for the Astros in 2014 after his near 40/40 minor league
season. Right now Springer looks like he did in spring training, awful. He's
striking out 30% of the time, hitting .170, and only produced 2 RBIs from the cleanup
spot. This kid who has been deemed the next big thing, right now looks like
Drew Stubbs. He hasn't shown the ability to hit big league hitting yet and I am
not sure he's going to going to become the savoir the Astros franchise needs.
But then again... small sample size.
