The 15% Report

Here we are approximately 15% through the Major League Baseball season, so I thought now would be an appropriate time to do another blog to share my thoughts so far on the Royals as well as a few musings I have from around the league. I really did mean to revive this blog this summer, but I basically kept putting off adding a new post since the season preview making excuses. Maybe I have just been inspired by my fellow Lincoln East Spartan and KC Royals fanatic Dave, known in KC as DJ Dave O on Mix 93.3. Dave has launched his new Royals-centric website/podcast at clubhouseconversation.com. Go check it out, the production quality is excellent, but what else would you expect from someone who has spent more than half of their life working in radio?

If you read my season preview, I had grave concerns about the KC Royals starting pitching outside of Shields and I stated that the offense would have to take the next step to get this team into the playoffs. Yeah, about that... As of tonight April 27th, 2014, the Royals starters have the lowest ERA in the American League. James Shields has been the road warrior that he has been known for, 5 of Shields' 6 starts have been on the road and has now won his last 3 starts, all on the road. Jason Vargas has been very solid this year and currently sports a 1.54 ERA over 5 starts. He struck out 6 in his first 7 innings of the season, he's managed to strike out 12 in the 28 innings since, and that’s a little alarming. What's even more alarming to me is the fact that on balls put in play, Vargas has a fly ball percentage at 63%. This is something that you can get away with in April in parks like Det, KC, and Minnesota. As Royals fans we should enjoy Vargas' good fortunes for now. I have never kept it a secret that I am not a big fan of Jeremy Guthrie, but to his credit, I don't think he cares what I think of his pitching ability. Guthrie goes out there and battles, and gives the Royals innings and rarely takes them out of the game. He has given up a HR per start on the season, but he hasn't really given up a big inning yet this season, he's kept the Royals in games while pitching into the 6th in every start. Bruce Chen is the only known example of an Asian lowering the curve, Bruce sports a +7 ERA and a 1.8 WHIP, which is among the league-worst. This is unfortunately does not surprise me, and if this continues he's not long for this starting rotation. Finally the rookie Yordano Ventura has been something special, I don't want to get ahead of myself just yet since it's still just April, but I think I sold this kid short in my season preview. I still have worries about his control, but the fact is he currently sports a 1.8 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, strikes out more than 1 per inning, and has a ground ball percentage that is greater than 50% (my favorite stat). Overall, it's hard to imagine Bruce Chen being any worse, but it's also difficult for me to imagine Vargas being any better. April baseball is hardly indicative of how the season will play out, the warmer weather usually correlates to increased offensive numbers, and that's just what the Royals offense needs.

The Royals offense has been non-existent for most of the season thus far, and if it wasn't for today's 9 run outburst the numbers would be even uglier. The Royals are tied for 13th in the AL in runs scored and On-Base Percentage, and dead last in the AL in HRs and Slugging Percentage. Just looking at those numbers makes my stomach hurt. The core of the lineup (Hosmer, Butler, Gordon) have a combined 1 HR in 24 games, these guys are hitting 3-4-5 day in and day out, if you want to lump Salvador Perez in there who has been hitting 6th most days they have a grand total of 2 HR on the season in that group of 4. Mike Moustakas has doubled that, but Mous hasn't done much of any anything else offensively. Billy Butler is the most frustrating out of this group; Butler is hitting clean-up with a 1.8-1 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a negative WAR. Butler has as many Ks has he has hits, and he's slugging .242. He's still hitting clean-up, after today you can make a strong case to just have Billy and Omar Infante swap in the order. Infante was as productive in 1 game today as Billy has been all season. Omar hit a HR, had 6 RBI, and drove in two runs with productive outs including a sac fly, where get this... HE HIT THE BALL IN THE AIR! Infante has been everything the Royals wanted when they signed him in the off-season, he's been more productive than any 2nd basemen KC had in 2013. Alcides Escobar and Jarrod Dyson (filling in for the already injured Lorenzo Cain) have been hot as of late at the bottom of the order setting the table for the RBI machine known as Infante. The bottom line is the Royals need an improved approach at the plate. They are too swing happy as a team, it's really hard to be 6th in the AL in Batting Average but 15th in OBP. It almost makes you think they get fined if they take a walk. I am actually upset KC misses Brandon Morrow (who walked 8 Red Sox on Saturday) in this series with Toronto, just to see how stubborn the Royals hitters can be!

I do fully expect the laws of averages to slowly take over as we move through these next 4 weeks. Memorial Day is usually a pretty good time to sit back and say "this is significant statistically." The Royals are 12-12 and there is nothing wrong with that overall as they return home this week for 3 vs. Tor and 3 vs. Det starting after an off day Monday. Here is to hoping Sunday's 9 run output leads to bigger and better things.

Random Thoughts From Around the League

I actually believe in the Milwaukee Brewers, outside from the fact Ryan Braun clocked his teammate Jean Segura in the head on Saturday night then pulled a muscle in his chest later in the game. Carlos Gomez who I fully expected to regress in 2014 is proving to everyone that 2013 was no fluke. He is still an idiot who swings out of his shoes and likes to bat flip on deep fly balls, but he's as dangerous of a leadoff as there is in the major leagues. The Brewers offense top to bottom is as good as it gets in baseball; they absolutely crush left handed pitching, and don't have terrible splits versus righties.  The Brewers pitching has been surprisingly solid, Peralta, Estrada, Garza, Lohse, and Gallardo have been among the best in the NL outside of Atlanta (to be discussed) and K-Rod has taken the closer's role from Jim Henderson. Also, as I look at the NL Central I don't think it's nearly as strong of a division as it was last year. Cubs are already eliminated, but that was to be expected. Pitt is about to call up Gregory Polanco from Indianapolis because they can't score. The Reds also have issues scoring, and their leadoff hitter is no better than Jarrod Dyson. The Cards are still a good team and really the only team I can see stopping Milwaukee from winning this division. I think Brewers are headed for a 95 win season. 

What is it with Atlanta and starting pitching? The Braves lose the guy who has the 2nd lowest ERA over the past two seasons as a starter in Kris Medlen (Kershaw is 1st) and Brandon Beachy both to Tommy John. On top of that Mike Minor has missed the entire year thus far with a shoulder issue. So a team that lost their top 3 pitchers (or at least 3 of their top 4 depending on where you slot Teheran) would be set up for disaster in 2014. Well, Atlanta quickly signed Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang to take 2 of those spots as well as bringing David Hale to be their fifth starter and they lead the Majors in starter's ERA. It's already absurd to think that a team that has Aaron Harang starting could lead the league in ERA, but the deeper numbers are even more unbelievable. Atlanta's starter's have allowed a league low 7 HRs, .201 BA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Minor is returning in short order to take David Hale's spot in the rotation. Alex Wood and Teheran look like future stars and Ervin Santana has kept the ball in the park thus far this year. There is no way Harang can keep this up... right? 

Charlie effing Blackmon is tearing the cover off the ball. The scouting report on Blackmon coming into the year was he has no plate discipline and a less than superb understanding of the strike zone, but who cares when you get a hit almost every time. Blackmon is even hitting lefties at a .476 clip; he's solidified the top of the order for the Rockies and made their already good offense even better. Blackmon cannot be kept out of the lineup right now; he's the surprise breakout star of 2014 thus far.  Yes White Sox fans, Jose Abreu is having a great month, but I figured he was going to be a 30HR guy anyway because Chicago was guaranteeing him 600 ABs this year, and everyone knew what he could do, Blackmon was supposed to be a platoon player vs. RH pitching only. 

George Springer was supposed to be a breakout player for the Astros in 2014 after his near 40/40 minor league season. Right now Springer looks like he did in spring training, awful. He's striking out 30% of the time, hitting .170, and only produced 2 RBIs from the cleanup spot. This kid who has been deemed the next big thing, right now looks like Drew Stubbs. He hasn't shown the ability to hit big league hitting yet and I am not sure he's going to going to become the savoir the Astros franchise needs. But then again... small sample size.